The government of India recently approved the caste census in India which reminded me of a lecture given by C. Chandramouli on ‘Contours of Demographic Change in India’ in IIT Tirupati where he expressed his thoughts about the importance of India’s demographic composition. And that inspired me to write this article. Demography is more than just population counts – a complete demographic profile tracks age structure (young vs. old), gender balance, literacy and schooling, employment status, regional and social divisions and more, which shape policy needs. Hence understanding these facets is essential for crafting targeted policies on schooling, jobs, healthcare, and social support. This article hence is my attempt to understand why Census
2025 is crucial from a perspective of Indian demography.

Falling Fertility and an Aging Population
India’s fertility rate has been falling constantly. By 2021 the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was around 1.9–2.0 children per woman – below the replacement level of ~2.1. (In 1950 India’s TFR was ~6.1; by 1980 ~4.6.) This demographic shift means fewer births and a rising median age. According to UN projections, the share of Indians aged 60+ will double from about 8.5% in 2020 to ~20% by 2050. In other words, India is moving from a very young society toward an older age structure over the next few decades.

Economic and Social Implications
These demographic shifts carry mixed implications for growth and public services. Analysts estimate India’s workforce will add ~1.04 billion people by 2030, pushing the young-age and old-age dependents per worker
to the lowest levels on record. This can amplify economic output and tax revenues only if supported by education and jobs. However, the aging of society means much higher demand for healthcare and elderly care. Pension systems, too, will come under strain unless reform measures and higher contributions are implemented.

Regional Population Divergence
India’s demographic trends are highly regional. For example, Northern and central states generally have higher fertility and younger populations, while many southern and western states have very low fertility and rapidly aging populations. Regional disparities demand decentralized policies. Northern states may still need to focus on expanding schools, skilling youth, and job creation to harness their growing workforce. In contrast, southern states must address population aging.

Census 2025 and the Data Imperative
The 2025 Census (India’s 16th, delayed by COVID) is now slated to begin early next year and conclude by 2026. This decennial exercise will update the National Population Register (NPR) and produce the authoritative data on all the above demographics. For example, the government has announced that detailed caste data will be collected for the first time in a century. It will also continue tracking religion, language, education, urban/rural status, and other key variables.

This fresh data will directly shape policy. For example, The census drives delimitation of parliamentary and assembly constituencies, which in turn determines political representation; indeed, new population figures
will be used to redraw seats for the 2029 national elections. Likewise, the proposed Women’s Reservation Bill (33% of legislative seats reserved for women) can only be implemented accurately after census-based
redistricting. The Census also refreshes the NPR, a citizen registry linked (in principle) to welfare distribution and citizenship records. Debates around the NPR/NRC in the context of the CAA/Citizenship Act have underscored that any policy tied to identity or benefits relies on credible population registers.

Demography in Policy Planning
In practice, policymakers must integrate these demographic insights across sectors. Education and job programs should be scaled up where the youth bulge is largest. Healthcare and eldercare resources need to expand where populations are aging fastest. Migration and urbanization trends (seen in state data) should guide infrastructure and housing policy. Women’s empowerment initiatives, too, hinge on demographics: states with higher female literacy and workforce participation often show faster fertility declines. Ultimately, no broad policy can be well-designed without demographic data.

Sources: Official census releases, United Nations and World Bank demographic studies, and recent news analyses, among others, inform these observations.