(Economics and Astrology: Predicting the Unpredictable)

Once or twice in our lives, we have all made fun of astrology and how it’s a lie or a facade.

Being an aspiring economist, are you really in a position to do so?

Have you ever wondered that we statisticians are doing exactly the type of work that they do?

What if “good balance of trade” and “raj yog” are just two different ways of predicting that you’re going to rule the world?

Happy realisation! Let’s further explore this, shall we?

I’m not saying that economics is as easy as astrology or they both hold equal importance. I’m just trying to highlight the parallels between them. Of course, economics is more important as a discipline than astrology and I’m not being biased as an economist.

Economists start with assumptions and preferences trying to predict a future situation. They both make use of charts, trend analysis and ceteris paribus, assuming that growth or decline remains constant, just like a human’s karma.

One of our core assumptions before starting with our modelling has been ceteris paribus i.e everything else remains constant and then the consumer will take rational decisions in different market situations. Say, demand will go down as prices or interest rates go up.

Similarly, astrologers begin by anticipating how a rational person would behave, assuming no other planets are in retrograde. In that case, your ‘planetary equilibrium’ gets disturbed. That would be a crisis situation in which you have to go back to your models, question them and gather your knowledge to gauge a rational person’s actions.

To a great extent, economics is all about projecting human behavior and a rational consumer. The right envision about the behavior will get you to make better decisions and policies over time. The models fail or the problems arise when humans tend to change their preferences, behaviour or actions.

Similarly, astrologers try to speculate a human’s behavior but what if he chooses differently? What if preferences change over time? That’s all your karma, not the astrologer’s fault.

“Karm badal gya, result badal gya” (When karma changes, the result changes)

Model and kundlis, both become helpless when it comes to an unpredictable human.

Humans are so unpredictable and irrational that they change their behavior even in “favourable” situations. Take this instance, didn’t I start this article with stating astrology as easy and now supporting their case?

Maybe both the fields are about trying to predict and understand human psychology and beautifully so. One uses mathematical charts and models and the other birth charts and planet diagrams. The purpose isn’t to stop humans from changing, but to understand their patterns and prepare for the shifts. It’s always better to plan and be prepared in advance for unfavourable shocks than to face them with nothing on your mind. Isn’t that why any discomfort in personal life takes you to astrologers and in nation to the policymakers?

At the end of the day, we’re both just trying to forecast the future, figure out what’s going to happen next, now that could either be using stats or stars, choose your weapon!

Predictions are subject to human irrationality and unexpected planetary movements.

Now, you know why astrologers blame Mercury if their predictions fail just like you blame market sentiments 🙂