Just 54 years ago, India played a role of midwife in the birth of Bangladesh. Over the years, Bangladesh has seen military coups, reestablishment of democracy, flourishing relations with India and turning into one of the fastest growing economies of the world. 

Since January 2024, with the re-election of the Sheikh Hasina and Awami League government in Bangladesh, it has seen internal turmoil reducing the legitimacy of her rule. The student protests demanding reforms in the civil service quota system, even after the Supreme court’s decision of scaling back the reservations, soon turned into violent obstruction of roads and railways, attacks on the police and other government infrastructure, minorities and temples and leaders. This led to a military rule and interim control of Bangladesh by army chief Waker-uz-Zaman. What looked like a start of protests for a vibrant democracy soon turned out to be a fall of democracy for the largest ally of India in Asia. 

Bangladesh shares the longest border with India. Both the nations have strong historical, cultural, language ties. Both counties have extensively worked on border security, energy sector, water and land connectivity over the past few years. Strong support and alliance with former PM Sheikh Hasina has benefited in flourishing of India – Bangladesh relations, so much so that we have had almost zero association with other parties in Bangladesh. It is always a great strategy to have good relations with the strong leaders of the nations but the growing discontent and reducing credibility of Hasina’s rule in Bangladesh over the last few days should have been a hint for India to foster better relations with other parties in Bangladesh too. Protests in Bangladesh presently also carry a tone of radical and anti – India sentiments.

On one hand, India’s continued association with Sheikh Hasina even after she has fled the country can add to anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, on the other hand China would leave no chance to expand its influence by helping the next government in Bangladesh with all the resources. It is the fact that every time the nemesis of Sheikh Hasina’s party that is the BNP-Jamaat government is established in Bangladesh, India- Bangladesh relations have taken a dive and China-Pakistan-Bangladesh relations flourished.  India suddenly seems to be surrounded with unfaithful Pakistan, ambitious China, communist – led Nepal, Afghanistan controlled by Taliban, unstable Sri Lanka, and now ambiguous Bangladesh! 

It is necessary that a peaceful transformation of the interim government in Bangladesh happens along with additional diplomatic efforts from India to develop relations with the post Sheikh Hasina government in Dhaka. New Delhi also needs to be prepared for a three front challenge if China and Pakistan are successful in influencing the new government in their favour. 

Lastly, even though India can assume the responsibility of being a leader in Asia and ensure stability in Bangladesh, it also needs to be aware that this is an internal issue for Bangladesh and we cannot afford to be presumed as the one having a big-brother attitude. The future peace in Asia depends on strategic diplomacy, stability of internal politics in Bangladesh and the carefully analysed steps by India navigating the turbulent times with a balancing act.